It was 2007. I was working at one of the major private banks in their wealth management arm. I decided to fix my mortgage. Why wouldn't I? The RBA cash rate was about 6.25%, the economy was booming, and rates were only going to go higher. I was working in the industry, I would know what's going on. I fixed my mortgage in at 7.50% for 3 years. It was June of 2007 to be precise. Little did I know of the hairline cracks that were appearing in the global economy. Rates continued to climb for 1 full year subsequently and hit 7.25% in April of 2008. In fact, variable rates at this time were 9.44%. Fixed rates at that time were 8.97%. Look at me. I was a genius. Well above the average investor.

Even the market commentators have given up - "I've stopped looking". Is that what it's going to take? A bloodbath? When it gets all too hard, you give up? Just like that? Isn't this the time when you do your best work? Or will you tell us what we should have done after the fact? I'm genuinely curious. No, actually I'm not. I already know the answer. The question is rhetorical.

It's been a super rough ride for investor so far during 2022. What did you think was going to happen? A repeat of 2021 and a 27% increase in prices excluding dividends? Probably. As we close off the month of April, we see the S&P 500 finish the month with an 8.79% decline, the biggest one-month decline since March 2020, but the last trading day of the month was one for the record books, falling 3.70%. The last time we saw such a fall, although much bigger, was in August of 1998 where the market fell 7.13%.

Inflation, rising rates, new variants, recessions, war, what's there to be optimistic about? Well, the markets say, not much. Less than 20% of US investors are bullish right now. We need to go back to 2016 to see investors with such low levels of optimism. What's even more interesting than this, is that prior to 2016, we need to go back to 2003 and 1992 to see such levels of low optimism.

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Apple recently set a deadline for corporate employees to return to in-person work. I hadn't realised that Apple, or in fact, so many employees were still working from home full time.